Making Intelligent Stock Selections

Making intelligent stock selections is a lot easier than making choices that always return high profits. If playing the stock market resembles poker, the techniques being used may not be the right ones. Assuming that the companies in question are honest about their performances, some very simple questions need to be asked.

Growth Business or Stable Business?

An example of a growth company is Microsoft. It started out small and mostly unknown, then blossomed into quite a millionaire-maker. This is by far the exception to the rule. If a company is growing, it will be reflected in their annual reports and other financial documents. The history of the company’s stock price might indicate growth as well, but this is not always a sure thing. The basic principle is to know as much as possible about a company, its history and plans for the future before investing. If all or most of the indicators show growth, the investment will likely return a profit.

Stable businesses can be easily identified by their payment of dividends to stockholders. Investing in the stable company is similar to putting the money into a bank’s Certificate of Deposit (CD). However, the stock could also rise in value. If the stable company is also an industry leader, a rise in stock value will likely happen.

Speculative or Stable Investment?

This is a question that only the investor can answer. What kind of investment is being made, one that has promises for success or one that is as near a safe bet as anything? Perhaps the investment is a little of both. This depends on a lot of variables, but perhaps the most important is the investor’s gut feeling. For example, investing in alternative energy companies can be considered speculative because the market has not yet fully formed. On the other hand, the trend in energy seems to be toward alternatives. How the investor feels about this will have an important impact on the decision.

Mad Money, Play Money and Serious Money

One way of investing in the stock market involves three levels of money: mad, play and serious. The mad money is a small portion of profits used for purely speculative investing. The play money can be part profit and part principle, but in a relatively small amount too. The idea is to experiment with trading techniques and research sources to learn more about investing by doing. The serious money is the principle that needs to be preserved while making a reasonable amount of profit over time.

Divvying Up the Money

Exactly what percentages of the entire investment portfolio are used for the three levels of money depend on the investor’s position in life and level of risk-taking capacity. Younger investors on the upside of their careers tend to be bigger risk-takers than those at peak or coming down the home stretch. A 25-25-50 approach might work for younger investors, while a 10-10-80 level would be appropriate for peak career investors. As the golden years approach, the level could go from 5-5-90 to 0-0-100 at retirement. Still at retirement, a seasoned investor may want to keep in the action with a 5-5-90 level, but anything riskier than this is not recommended. Keep in mind that this all has to do with personally managed investments, not mutual funds or other kinds of retirement accounts.

Putting the Money to Good Use

Mad money involves funds that can easily be lost without inducing hardships. Some people like to put the money in slot machines, but for the investor the money should go into highly speculative stocks and perhaps futures. Taking big risks with mad money is the name of the game, and the hope is to hit it big once in a while.

Play money is for learning more about the stock market or any other market that looks interesting. The investment strategy should only be somewhat speculative. The serious money should require no learning curve and be conservatively maintained.

Technical Analysis and Investment Research

Two primary methods of making investment decisions are technical analysis and investment research. The two methods can be used together, although some investors depend heavily on one or the other.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis involves the use of graphs that show the highs and lows of the selling price of the investment over a period of time. If a stock opens at $1.00, falls to $0.75 and rises to $1.25 during the trading day, the low would be $0.75 and the high $1.25. Another graph can be done for the opening and closing prices for a trading day. Whichever approach is taken, the idea is to discover price trends that may indicate a major move up or down for the stock. For example, if a stock is in a channel for several weeks, the trend may change to breaking up or down. This is where investment research can help predict what will happen.

Investment Research

Investment Research has to do with uncovering the financial details of an investment and discovering what might make the investment price rise of fall. The P/E (Price/Earnings) ratio of a company is a classic financial detail that investors look into. If the stock price is too high in relation to the company’s earnings, the chances are that the price will fall. The reverse indicates that the price will rise. Other factors must be considered as well, such as whether evidence exists that the price will or will not remain the same. Sometimes investments are over or under priced for no good reasons at all, other than a common belief held by other investors.

Wise investors will pay attention to both techniques. Depending too heavily on one or the other tends to work only for short periods of time. Also, ignoring the impact that human emotions have on markets can lead to poor investment decisions.

Developing an Investor’s Style

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Developing an investor’s style is similar to developing a writing style, a musician’s style or a golfing style. Certain fundamentals should be mastered first, and then special interest can be paid to refining the overall approach. Exactly how success is measured differs among writers, musicians, golfers and investors. For investors, success is measured as a percentage of return on their investments. However, the methods for developing style are very similar for nearly every endeavor.

Mentoring to Independent Study

We should learn to walk before we run. This is an old saying that has held its value over time because it is true. If the investor runs headlong into the markets without preparation, a fall is sure to happen. One of the best ways to learn about the markets is to find a mentor or teacher who will share the insights required to make good investments. However, the mentor should not be depended upon forever to give sage advice. At some point, the investor should move into independent study.

The difference between a professional and a layperson is that the professional has done independent study. Today this generally means having earned a master’s degree, perhaps a doctorate, passed the appropriate licensing examinations and setting up shop. This does not mean that the investor needs degrees and licensing, but it does mean that the professional investor should have done plenty of independent study.

Books and Experimentation

Reading books on the subject is only one part of independent study. Another part is the synthesis of new ideas from the readings. The most important part is experimenting to test out the newly synthesized ideas. For the investor, this means investing and figuring out what works well and what does not.

Developing an investor’s style is an enjoyable part of becoming a professional investor, or should be. If the process is not enjoyable, then perhaps a career in writing, music, golf or some other field would be better.

Computers and Trading

It may be hard to imagine investment trading before computers, but at one time all the transactions were done using telephones and, largely, hand-written notes. Tickertape was actually streams of paper, and spreadsheets were still entered using pencils. The self-assured used pens.

Desktop and Laptop Computers

Today the investor can do trades in near real-time using a desktop or laptop computer. This capability has encouraged more people to do their own investing for at least a portion of their total investment cash. Others have decided that brokers know what they are doing and leave the investing to the professionals. Regardless, everyone has this choice today, while in years past the only way to invest was through brokers. Additionally, people with just a few hundred dollars of investment principle can now participate. Back in the old tickertape days, only the wealthy generally participated. Most other people kept their cash in banks, and in some instances, buried in the backyard.

Microsecond Trading

Computers have also changed the way that big players work the markets. Powerful servers located near the physical trading floors run sophisticated software programs that make trades in less than a blink of an eye. These high-end computers trade against each other with very large volumes of cash, and billions of dollars are generated as a result. In many ways, the presence of these powerful computers has changed the nature of investing forever.

What can an investor do while these computers churn away tirelessly at the markets? The first thing is to be aware that odd market behavior might be attributed to these mathematical monster machines. Rather than ruining capitalism, computers have made the game different for the human investor. The need to avoid panicked behavior is more important. While computers have made investing easier for everyone, they have also introduced market anomalies that can be caused by software bugs or human errors on keyboards.

Beware the Margin Call

When an investor buys stock on margin, most of the money is borrowed. This is not like getting a loan from an understanding relative. The relative likely has patience and understanding. The lender for a margin buy has absolutely no patience and zero understanding. If the investment looks bad, the lender will issue a margin call, and this is similar to repossessing a car or house. Either come up with the cash right now or start finding it somehow.

The Good Side of Margin Trades

If suddenly falling far in debt sounds scary, it should. On the upside, the investment might turn out to be fabulously profitable. If this happens, everybody turns out happy. The margin lender receives the money back, and the investor makes a healthy profit. The trick then is to identify a sure-bet investment that will be fabulously profitable before doing a margin buy. The other part of this is to not do a margin buy that is so huge it cannot be quickly covered if the investment goes bad and sparks a margin call.

Greed Is Not Good

The practice of buying on margin appeals to our natural tendency to be greedy little children. Everything in the world should be mine! Greed has never been good for investors, no matter what the movies try to promote. Yes, the investor wants to make the best return possible, but this should also be done reasonably. Once in a while an investment can turn massive profits, but this is far outside the norm. Overall, if an investor can beat the odds by a few percentage points, the investment strategy has been successful.

The practice of buying stock on margin must be approached carefully. The target investment needs to have solid evidence supporting it, and the amount put into it should be well within the means of the investor. Covering a possible market call will then be painful but not disastrous.

How To Start Trading In The Stock Market

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The stock market is a constant ride of ups and downs. Investing in the right company at the right times can lead to riches, and the wrong one at the wrong time to financial ruins. If you are ready to try your hand at the highs and lows of trading stocks, there are a few steps to take.

1. Decide what company you may want to purchase stock to invest in. In your city newspaper, you can find the abbreviation for that company on the stock exchange as well as the cost of one share at that time. You can also see additional information, such as if the stock prices of that stock are going up or down.

2. Figure out how much money you are willing to invest in that stock. Remember that it is the stock market, nothing is guaranteed, so only invest what you are okay losing. Remember that part of that investment is going to your stockbroker as a commission.

3. Find a broker and call them to place an order. They will pass on your request to a broker who is on the floor of the stock market. The floor broker will purchase the stock for you.

4. Read the newspaper to track if your stock is rising or falling in prices. If your stock is falling and you sell, you will lose money. If the stock is rising and you sell, you make money. You may want to sell and lose money to keep from losing more if you wait on it, or you may choose to “sit” on your stock in hopes that it will go up. Your stockbroker can help you decide when to sell or keep your stock.

There are many intricacies of knowing when to buy and sell stock, but these simple steps will get you started.

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